PC-DDPM Alberta — physics-constrained renewable energy scenario generation

Grid planners need scenarios that are statistically realistic AND physically consistent. PC-DDPM achieves 100% scenario feasibility under operational voltage bounds vs. 1.8% scenario infeasibility for the unconstrained baseline, on 9 years of real AESO data. Full methodology, code, and limitations: https://github.com/JBobyM/pc-ddpm-alberta · Model card: https://github.com/JBobyM/pc-ddpm-alberta/blob/master/model_card.md

Reference day (overlay)

Real Alberta day plotted in red on top of the generated ensemble.

typical_day high_wind_day low_wind_day

Number of scenarios

CPU latency on HF Spaces free tier: 4≈6s, 24≈38s, 100≈2.6min.

4 100

Generated scenarios vs reference day

Examples

See limitations and intended use in the model card.